Demographic ageing: what is the impact on healthcare spending in France?

Clariane Group

Sommaire :

  1. The demographic reality in figures
  2. Sharp rise in healthcare spending
  3. The areas of expenditure most affected

The ageing of the French population is set to be one of the major challenges of the coming decades. According to projections by INSEE, while the total population in France is expected to remain relatively stable by 2050, its distribution by age group will undergo a profound transformation. Assuming that the healthcare system remains unchanged, ageing alone will lead to a 4.8% increase in healthcare spending by 2030, representing an additional €16 billion compared to 2023. This increase would reach 10% (€32 billion) in 2040, then 13% (€41 billion) in 2050.

These figures are taken from a new study by Clariane, conducted with Asterès, on the impact of ageing on healthcare spending.

The demographic reality in figures

INSEE projections show a significant change in the age pyramid between now and 2050:

  • People aged 65 and older will make up 27% of the population (compared with 21% today)
  • The proportion of people aged 80 and over will double, rising from 6% to over 11%

In other words, there will be more senior citizens than people under the age of 20.

Sharp rise in healthcare spending

Sur la base des niveaux actuels de consommation médicale par âge (une personne de 80 ans et plus « dépense » en moyenne 7,3 fois plus qu’un enfant de moins de 10 ans), l’étude Asterès évalue l’effet mécanique du vieillissement sur les dépenses publiques de santé, à population constante.

Based on current levels of medical consumption by age (a person aged 80 and over "spends" on average 7.3 times more than a child under 10), the Asterès study assesses the mechanical effect of ageing on public healthcare expenditure, assuming a constant population.

In 2023, this expenditure amounted to €325 billion.

The projections indicate:

  • + €16 billion in 2030 (+4.8%)
  • + €32 billion in 2040 (+10%)
  • + €41 billion in 2050 (+13%)

Taking into account a slight increase in population, the impact would be even greater:

  • + €18 billion by 2030 (+5.5%)
  • + €38 billion by 2040 (+12%)
  • + €46 billion by 2050 (+14%)

The areas of expenditure most affected

Certain areas will be particularly sensitive to demographic changes. The study looked at three examples:

Hospital expenditure

A major area of expenditure, this is expected to grow rapidly: +16% in 2050 compared to 2023, solely due to changes in the age pyramid.

Hearing aids

This area is expected to see the biggest increase: +32% in 2050, based on the projected age structure.

Patient transport

These costs are also expected to rise, with an estimated increase of +17% in 2050 compared to 2023.

In a country where healthcare already accounts for 12.3% of GDP – placing France second in Europe – these projections highlight the importance of anticipating the effects of demographic ageing today.